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The Tart Cherry Industry - continued
The Tart Cherry Market
Fresh consumption of tart cherries is relatively unimportant. The
principal market for tart cherries is processing. Frozen cherries
account for the largest volume of processed product, with canning
ranking second in terms of volume.
Supply
Almost all of the tart cherries consumed in the United States are
produced in this country. Supply and use estimates indicate that, of
the canned and frozen cherries consumed in the United States, over 99
percent were produced domestically.
The year-to-year variation in tart cherry output is significant, with
U.S. production ranging from 190 million pounds to 396 million pounds
between 1985 and 1995 (table 3). Since Michigan dominates the
domestic industry, U.S. output rises and falls with variations in Michigan’s output.
A short crop in Michigan means a
short U.S. crop and high prices for all U.S. areas, while a large
Michigan crop leads to low prices in all areas. Killing spring
freezes in Michigan (or the lack thereof) are the primary cause of
variations in annual crop size.
Another factor contributing to variations in production, however, is
a tendency for the trees to bear a large crop following years of low
yields. As with many fruit and nut trees, cherries build up energy
reserves during short-crop years, and tend to produce a bumper yield
during the following year.
USDA estimates of total production measure the amount of cherries
available for harvesting. Utilized production, in contrast, measures
the cherries actually harvested and marketed. In most years, total
production exceeds utilized production because some cherries remain
unharvested. The proportion of the crop actually utilized depends to
a large extent on the size of the crop. In a
small-crop season, such as in 1991, virtually all of the cherries
produced are harvested and used.
In seasons with excessively large crops, on the other hand, 20
percent or more of total production may remain unharvested. Only 79
percent of the 1995 bumper crop, for example, was utilized. Because
a higher proportion of total production is harvested in small-crop
seasons, utilized production may not vary as much from year to year
as total production.
Tart cherry production tends to exhibit long-term trends that are
determined partly by tree-planting cycles and partly by rising yields
over time. Because of relatively profitable tart cherry prices
during the late 1970s and early 1980s, growers planted considerable
new acreage to young trees. These new trees began bearing fruit
during the 1980s, resulting in substantial increases in output and
unprofitable prices during the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Because
of low returns, growers removed more trees than they planted during
these years, and acreage declined. By 1995, U.S. bearing acreage had
declined to less than 46,000 acres, down from nearly 52,000 in 1986
(table 4). Michigan’s acreage declined to an estimated 30,000 acres,
down from more than 36,000 acres in 1986.
although the acreage in bearing trees declined between 1986 and 1995,
output increased due to rising yields per acre. Annual production
averaged 313 million pounds between 1991 and 1995, up from 258
million pounds during the 1986-90 period. Yields rose from about
5,200 pounds per acre during the first 5 year period to 6,600 pounds
during the last 5 year period.
Because the growth in demand has lagged behind increases in output,
prices and producer returns have remained relatively low in the past
ten years. Except for 1991, prices have averaged 20 cents a pound or
less in every season since 1986.
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